NATIONAL WEATHER ONLINE - NORTHEAST REGION

The Evolution of My Snowfall Forecasts

As we know by now, this storm wasn't extremely well predicted for people in parts of New England.  I think it's very important to go back and review the mistakes that were made in the forecast process, so these mistakes aren't made again.  Meteorology is an inexact science - and always will be - but I still think it's important to go back, and review.  Especially after a busted forecast.  I've gone back and looked at each snowfall forecast I made for my personal weather web site - www.atkinsonweather.com - focusing on the Merrimack Valley of southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts.  Unbelievably (or...maybe believably in this case!), I modified my snowfall forecast five times in between Monday afternoon and today.  Here are some of the notes that I made when going back, and looking at my previous forecasts.

* Monday afternoon: There were indications we'd see a healthy dose of snowfall around here, on many of the computer models. My first forecast, of 4-8" in the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire, was issued.

* Early Tuesday morning: Overnight Monday night, the models backed off quite a bit. They indicated a more southern axis to the heaviest snow. I became much less confident that we'd see a half foot or more.  I downgraded the forecast to 2-5", a pretty wide range, but the uncertainty that existed justified it, in my opinion. 

* Tuesday evening: The switch was flipped back on later Tuesday. A big shift in the models occurred; some were even indicating up to 1 foot of snow in the Atkinson area! I modified my forecast again, returning to 4-8".

* Early Wednesday morning: Incredible uncertainty still existed Wednesday morning, when updating around 5:30am. One computer model (the NAM) predicted only an inch or two of snow for the Atkinson area. At the same time another model (the GFS) had about 6" for the Atkinson area. With so much zigging and zagging of the computer models, I decided to stick with what I had Tuesday evening. Radar trends looked good early Wednesday morning, with lots of moisture to be had. The question was - where would this moisture set up - over our area, or south of here? I only made minor adjustments to the map - shrinking the 4-8" band to only include extreme southern New Hampshire, while places like Manchester and Concord were under a 1-4" band.

* Wednesday afternoon: By late morning or midday, we knew we dropped the ball. Yes, it was snowing, but it was at or above freezing! Therefore, the snow wasn't accumulating. A mid-storm update was issued; the snowfall map completely done from scratch. See the final map here, which did verify.

Hopefully this gives you a little bit of an insight as to my thought process with this storm. That all said, let's move on...and enjoy the quiet weather for the next few days.

Wrapping up the Blizzard of '10

I'm sure you've heard about the Blizzard of 2010 by now.  It is long gone, but the damage has certainly been done.  Hundreds of thousands lost power due to the weight of the wet, heavy snow.  Some areas received over 3 feet!  Colesville, MD took the prize of the most snow with 40".  Unfortunately for storm-weary Mid-Atlantic residents, another storm may impact the region during the middle part of the week, bringing more accumulating snow!  This one may track a bit farther north, impacting New York City and Southern New England as well.  As always, the exact track determines how much snow falls.  It'll be a fun one to track.

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 07 FOR MID-ATLANTIC WINTER STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2010
 
...HISTORIC SNOWSTORM HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
 
ALL BLIZZARD WARNINGS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE AFFECTED REGION.
 
FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 PM EST...A 978 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE SNOW HAS MOVED ENTIRELY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH HIGH WINDS REMAIN ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM EST THU FEB
04 THROUGH 900 PM EST SAT FEB 06...

Click continue reading to view the snowfall totals from throughout the Mid Atlantic...

New England Still Watching Weekend Storm, As Outcome Remains Uncertain

Note: I originally posted this for my personal web site - www.atkinsonweather.com.  While it somewhat focuses on the forecast for the Merrimack Valley, Southern New Hampshire, and Northern Massachusetts, it also outlines the potential impacts throughout New England over the next several days.

The computer guidance has been hinting for a while that a storm would be developing off of the eastern seaboard around New Year's Day. A potentially significant storm system is still indicated, though its track and intensity remain in question. Hopefully this post will help outline the next few days for you.

One wave of precipitation will begin to move into the region during Thursday afternoon. This wave will bring scattered snow showers into the area during the afternoon. Less cold air will begin to move into the region during the afternoon, changing the precipitation from light snow to light rain along the coastline. Up to 1-3" of accumulating snow is possible in most of the Merrimack Valley, southern New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts. More is possible in the higher elevations of southwestern New Hampshire and northcentral Massachusetts. Again, most of this snow will be on the lighter side (though it may come down briefly moderately/heavily) and travel shouldn't be a huge issue for your New Year's Eve plans.

On Friday, the system that comes through on Thursday will begin to phase and come together with another batch of moisture emerging off of the southeastern U.S. coast. Once these two systems come together, they will form a monster of a storm offshore. It will actually form well east of New England, so little impact will be felt here on Friday. We'll probably see a bit of a break in the action, with only occasional light flurries/drizzle or passing snow/rain showers.

Friday night into Saturday the forecast confidence goes downhill significantly. It appears as though the storm will mature significantly several hundred miles south of Nova Scotia. In fact, this storm may reach "bombogenesis" criteria, meaning it has strengthened significantly over a 24 hour period. However, the big (unanswered) question is where the storm goes from here. Indications are that the center of the storm will move northward toward Nova Scotia, then loop backwards into the Gulf of Maine, toward New England! This is extremely unusual, and definitely not something that is seen often. The exact position of the storm's center will make a huge difference, as bands of heavy snow will be rotating around the west and northwest quadrant of the storm, into New England. It appears as though the heaviest bands will probably rotate into Maine. Lighter snow showers may pinwheel as far south as the Merrimack Valley and eastern Massachusetts. While the impact will be significantly less in the Merrimack Valley/southern New Hampshire, accumulating snow is still expected, and it may even be plowable. However, the most significant snow appears to occur in Maine. The precise position of the storm in the Gulf of Maine will make a huge difference in our forecast. Therefore, it's important to stay tuned for further updates.

From there, the storm appears to continue its loop westward and southwestward into Sunday. The storm will continue to unravel, gradually losing strength. With the system nearby, expect a continuation of occasional snow showers. The steadiest of the snow would probably fall in the morning. At this time, it appears additional accumulation on Sunday would be light, though this is not etched in stone.

There are indications that occasional flurries and snow showers may linger into Monday or even early Tuesday!

The bottom line is that we simply aren't sure of the outcome of the second storm late Friday through the weekend and early next week will be. Check back for updates here throughout the next day or two as the forecast becomes more clear.

Columbus Day Weekend Foliage Report

The fall foliage extravaganza continues this long holiday weekend. The colors are vibrant just about anywhere in New England; from the summits to the seacoast. The latest foliage reports suggest that color is continuing to peak now in much of Northern New England, including in most of the White Mountains, and Green Mountains in Vermont. In some areas, the color has gone past peak, though there is still plenty of amazing color. Farther south, high color is being observed from Downeast Maine to Lake Sebago, east to the New Hampshire Lakes Region and southwest into the Monadnocks. In the Monadnock Region itself, colors are going to be peaking over the next several days. Closer to Atkinson, colors are increasing daily. Currently, high color is being observed in the northern part of the Merrimack Valley; downriver from Lawrence to the mouth of the river, moderate color change is being observed.

We haven't had too many significant wind events so far this fall. Our first significant event was on Wednesday when a powerful frontal system pushed through; accompanying this front were gusty showers and downpours. Many leaves remain on the trees, however, so leaf drop is moderate to low from North to South.

Enjoy the long holiday weekend. If you have any pictures of the foliage you'd like to share, send them along via Flickr.

Snow & Foliage in the White Mountains

The recent cooler weather has really helped the fall color increase all across the Northeast.  It was even cold enough on Thursday for snow to fall in some of the higher elevations of the White Mountains! The latest foliage reports show that color is nearing peak or peaking now and over the next several days in the White Mountains and far Northern New England.  Elsewhere, color has been gradually increasing, and moderate color is being observed in New Hampshire's Monadnock and Lakes Region.  Some spots in the Monadnock Region have seen up to 75% color change!  In the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts and New Hampshire, low to moderate color is presently being observed.  We haven't seen too many significant wind events, so very few leaves have been stripped from the trees so far.

Friday, October 2, 2009 - an amazing shot from Bretton Woods of the snow covered Presidential Range, and fall foliage in the valley! (www.brettonwoods.com)

You can see more pictures of the snow and foliage up north by clicking below. You can contribute your own photos of the foliage and other weather to National Weather Online via Flickr.

The End of Summer '09

That’s all folks. Overnight lows are now in the 40s in many New England towns, daytime highs are rarely hitting 80, the sun is setting around 7pm, and fall sports are well underway. The summer of ’09 was definitely a unique one, to say the least. Many say that this summer went by extremely quickly because it took until late July for summer-like weather to arrive! Once summer did arrive, it lingered throughout much of August. While it did rain occasionally (especially on Saturday the 29th, when extratropical Danny hit us), there were many days of sunshine and warm temperatures in August. There was even a several day long heat wave! Here are some interesting stats about the summer of ’09 that pertain to New England.

* Severe weather occurred numerous times in June and early July. Like typical summer-time thunderstorms, on many days, some areas would be slammed, and others would miss out on the severe weather completely.

* June was one of the dimmest, cloudiest months on record. It was also a cool one.

* We had a five-day heat wave from Saturday, August 15 to Wednesday, August 19. Tuesday, August 18 was the warmest day of the summer and year so far, with a high of 95 degrees.

* There was only one other 90-degree day this summer, when we hit 90 on July 28. We did, however, hit or exceed the 90-degree mark once in April (94 on April 28), and twice in May (91 on May 21, 90 on May 22). In total, we've hit the 90-degree mark 9 times. Typically, 15 90-degree days occur throughout the year.

* Hurricane Bill passed a few hundred miles east of New England, but still brought impacts to the coast. Many New England beaches were closed to swimmers, as waves as high as 8 to 12+ feet rolled ashore, and dangerous rip currents became a concern.

* As Bill passed east of New England, a frontal boundary over the region became a focal point for heavy rain and severe weather. Tornado Watches were issued, and although no tornadoes formed, there were localized areas of flash flooding.

* Tropical Storm Danny formed into a powerful extratropical, or hybrid storm, a week after Bill moved east of New England. Danny brought heavy rain, surf, and some wind to New England on the last weekend of August.

* This became the wettest summer ever on record in Portland, Maine!

Danny Delivers Heavy Rain to New England

Danny was definitely the strangest storm to track so far this hurricane season, in my opinion. Yes, it was interesting how Claudette popped up in the Gulf before hitting the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm a day or so later. However, throughout his entire life cycle, Danny was very poorly organized. Danny isn't the only one responsible for the heavy rain which fell on Saturday. As he weakened and moved northward, Danny combined with two other weather systems; a front to our west and a system loaded with Gulf of Mexico moisture; to form an extratropical or "hybrid" storm.

RAINFALL TOTALS
New Bedford, MA: 5.05"
Brewster, MA: 4.69"
Nantucket, MA: 4.04"
Plymouth, MA: 4.00"
Salem, MA: 2.54"
Peterborough, NH: 2.47"
Keene, NH: 2.15"
Portsmouth, NH: 2.30"
Atkinson, NH: 2.08"
Kennebunk, ME: 1.95"
Portland, ME: 1.70"

PEAK WIND GUSTS
Nantucket Shoal, MA: 61 mph
Kalmus Beach, Barnstable, MA: 53 mph
Isles of Shoals, NH: 52 mph
Hyannis, MA: 44 mph
Lawrence, MA: 35 mph
Atkinson, NH: 29 mph

Hurricane Bill's Swells

Meteorologists, weather enthusiasts, and many New Englanders have been tracking and closely watching Bill all week. He didn't only form into the first hurricane of this season, but he also became the first major hurricane, achieving category four status on Wednesday. Overall, Bill was a well forecasted storm. Eastern New England was in the "cone of uncertainty" for a time during the early and middle part of the week, as some computer models indicated Bill would take a more western track. However, the consensus among many of the models was that Bill would move east of New England, impacting Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes the most. Due to the fact that Bill was such a strong hurricane, he produced large, dangerous seas, which panned out several hundred miles from his center. As he moved north and northeastward, these swells arrived in New England. Seas built as high as 4 to 8 feet on Saturday. On Sunday, 8 to 12 footers rolled ashore. In addition, rip currents were a major concern. Consequently, it was too dangerous for swimmers, and many New England beaches were closed.

I was in Saco, Maine for the weekend, and grabbed some pictures of the waves. In Saco, the beach was open for swimming for much of Sunday morning. Authorities decided it was no longer safe for swimming as high tide approached, and the entire beach was closed. Even though high tide was around 2pm, it appeared as though high tide was before noon, as much of the beach disappeared! In nearby Camp Ellis, a portion of Saco known for flooding during storms, the surf covered shore roads around high tide. Here are some of the pics that I shot on the beach.

Five-Day Heatwave in Atkinson, NH

An official "heatwave" in New England  is considered at least three days of 90+ degree heat. The weather pattern has certainly changed, as temperatures have been above normal for eight of the past ten days, and it looks as though temperatures will continue to be near or above normal for at least the next few days. The mercury climbed above the 90-degree mark for five straight days, from Saturday, August 15 to Wednesday, August 19, definitely making it an official heatwave!

Saturday: 90
Sunday: 92
Monday: 93
Tuesday: 95 (hottest day of the year so far)
Wednesday: 90

Up until this heatwave, we had only hit the 90-degree mark four times. We have now hit it nine times in Atkinson. We average 15 90-degree days per year in our area.

*Note - disregard the last few posts - I'm learning how to post to the site via moblie - I'll hopefully be able to post some pics of Hurricane Bill's waves at the beach over the weekend!

Tracking the Tropics - Why Everyone Along the Eastern Seaboard Should Keep a Watchful Eye

The tropics are finally heating up, after they were virtually silent for the first two months of hurricane season in the Atlantic.

As you know, Tropical Depression #2 formed early Tuesday in the eastern Atlantic. There were signs that the system was organizing on Wednesday, and rumors floated around the weather world that it might be named Tropical Storm Ana. However, as soon as convection flared and it looked like a decent system, it faded and essentially died by Thursday! The NHC issued its final regular advisory on the system Thursday evening, but they're still keeping an eye on it in case it starts to reorganize.

What caught my attention and many other's was not so much Tropical Depression #2, but rather a more robust wave behind it, coming off of the west coast of Africa. As of midday Friday, this tropical wave has not been classified a depression, and is located southwest of the Cape Verde islands. The NHC does say that there is a high (>50%) chance that this wave develops into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Some of the computer models (the GFS in particular) have been developing this system into something significant from the beginning. Admittedly, computer models need to be taken with a huge grain of salt when predicting tropical waves and the like, but it is something worth noting. I've posted what we call a "spaghetti chart" - which is essentially a map that presents each computer model's projected path of the system, over the next week or so.

As you can see, the guidance is in fair agreement that the system will continue on its current west-northwest track for the next few days. Beyond that, there are plenty of questions. How intense will the system be? Will it be a Tropical Storm? Or, will it have trouble organizing like Tropical Depression #2 did? Where will it go? We simply don't have a confident answer at this time. However, I strongly suggest that anyone along the U.S. coast from Texas to Maine keep a watchful eye on the evolution of this system. We'll definitely keep an eye on it for you, and have updates along the way.

Flip the Switch - Northeast is Headed Back to Summer!

An area of low pressure riding along a stalled out frontal boundary south of New England is responsible for the clouds and few showers around the Northeast today. As of 3pm, the visible satellite shot to the left shows that there has been breaks of sun from time to time, and the sun is out in much of Northern New England and New York. An onshore wind has kept the coastline the coolest; only around 70 at best. Inland locales haven't been much warmer. We're going to flip the switch tonight though, as an area of high pressure works into the region, and eventually sets up near Bermuda. This classic "Bermuda High" will provide sun, warmth, and some humidity, though it won't be oppressive. Temperatures will climb into the 80s and lower 90s through early next week!

Top Ten Friday & Saturday

Wow! After a partly sunny to mostly cloudy Thursday across much of the Northeast, the clouds departed for Friday.  A cool, northwesterly wind provided lots and lots of sunshine.  Along with that, lower humidity levels and cooler temperatures moved in.  That said, temperatures on Friday still made it up to about 80 degrees in most spots, even along the coast!  Check out this shot taken Friday afternoon from Osterville, Massachusetts, of Nantucket Sound. 

Where we were in Osterville, I'd estimate the water temperatures to be in the mid 70s! Being someone who visits the Maine coast frequently, where water temperatures are only in the low to mid 60s, it was quite a treat! The great weather continued on Saturday. IMO, both days qualify as "top ten" days of the summer.  I've counted seven so far, including Friday and Saturday.

The clouds have moved back in, and these clouds are actually associated with a warm front - the diving line between warmer and more humid air that is trying to push northward.  This heat and humidity will arrive Monday.  Could it be the first 90 since May in Boston and other New England coastal locations?  It's definitely a possibility.

Sun & Fair-Weather Clouds

The sunshine has returned, after a cloudy, foggy, and wet Sunday for some. For most of Southern and interior Central New England, Sunday featured clouds and a few breaks of sun from time to time. However, from the New Hampshire seacoast through the Maine coastline, fog actually became more dense during the day! In fact, visibility was greatly reduced as far inland as the Maine turnpike Sunday afternoon.

For this afternoon, expect  a mix of sunshine and fair-weather cumulus clouds. As of 11am, cumulus are already dotting the sky in Atkinson, NH.  It will be a warm, but much less muggy afternoon as dewpoints have already fallen into the upper 50s in many spots.  This reprieve from the humidity will be brief, as a south to southwesterly wind will transport warmer and more humid air our way on both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures on Tuesday will climb into the 80s to even near 90 in some spots.  A cold front will approach on Wednesday, and this front will be the focal point for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the guidance is suggesting we'll be up around 90 on Wednesday.  I'm a bit skeptical of that, because we'll need a decent amount of sun to get up to 90.

In any event, behind the front a cooler, drier, refreshing airmass will move in for the late week. This will promote daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 50s through the weekend.

Ryan Breton
http://www.atkinsonweather.com/
Follow me on Twitter - @atkinsonweather

Severe Weather Threat Today & Tonight

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk of severe weather today for much of New England and the Northeast. Numerous thunderstorms will begin developing in Western New England and Eastern New York during the midday and early afternoon. These storms will slowly begin to spread eastward during the afternoon and evening. It is possible that new storms will fire in Eastern New England during the afternoon, although they will likely be isolated to scattered in nature.  Any storms that develop will have the potential to contain damaging wind, hail, and torrential rain. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to move through during the overnight. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for parts of New York and Western New England, where the highest chance of flash flooding exists. The bottom line will be to keep an eye to the sky this afternoon, and check the radar to track storms.

Ryan Breton
http://www.atkinsonweather.com/
Follow me on Twitter - @atkinsonweather

The First 90 of the Summer

We hit 90 degrees in Atkinson, NH for the first time this summer. Actually, we really hit 89.7...but rounded it's 90! Today was the warmest day since May 21, when we last exceeded the 90 degree mark.  See complete temperature details I posted earlier by clicking here.

New England Mess: A Quiet Afternoon For Many...Snow Continues in Maine...Scattered Snow Showers Redevelop Tonight

The weather is improving now in Western, Central, and Southern New England after a dose of snow and rain last night.  The main area of low pressure passed well to the west of the Northeast, though a secondary area of low pressure developed off the NH seacoast, and will enhance the snow in Maine today.  That secondary low is currently analyzed South of Portland and East of Portsmouth. 

In Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, a couple of inches of snow accumulated away from the coastline, while right at the shore accumulations were limited to less than 1".  The snow transitioned over to rain quickly from South to North; it was raining in Boston, Providence, and Hartford by 10pm.  The changeover took much longer to occur in Southern New Hampshire; though in the end the rain won the battle.  By the very early morning hours of Thursday, the Merrimack River valley and much of Southern New Hampshire had changed over to rain.  A second batch of precipitation moved through in between roughly 7am and 8:30am.  This band of precip was intense enough to pull down colder air from the upper levels of the atmosphere and change rain back over to snow in places like Manchester, Lawrence, and even Boston for a time.  Very little, if anything additional accumulated with temperatures a degree to a few degrees above the freezing mark.  That area of precipitation has now moved into Maine, where it will continue to mix along the shore and snow (heavily at times) across the interior.

Visible satellite imagery now shows breaks of sunshine in portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.  These breaks of sunshine will continue to be scattered about throughout the afternoon South of Concord, NH, though overall it will be a primarily cloudy afternoon.  Doppler radar is showing another batch of precipitation back to the west, so any breaks that do develop will be filled back in by clouds later in the afternoon.  As this batch of precip moves through, an additional snow shower is possible anywhere in the Northeast.  Little accumulation (an inch at the very most) is expected.

Updated snowfall total links from the weather service can be seen by clicking over to the NWS Taunton web site.

Atkinson, NH: Snow Winding Down, After 9.5"

After about 9.5" (9.6" to be exact) here...the snow is finally winding down. We're left with overcast skies, and a temperature of 22 degrees.  In West Hampstead (the next town over),  10.2" was reported at 2pm, and I assume that their final amount will be closer to 11".  The storm is continuing to intensify in the Gulf of Maine, and the highest snowfall amounts will be found in the Pine Tree state.  In between 10" and 13" has been reported so far from Hollis south to Kennebunk, and an additional 1-3" is expected in York county before the snow stops this evening. 9-11" has been reported in the Portland area so far as well.

Ski country has made out fairly well, too...5-7" has fallen so far from Loon to Bretton Woods.

Please offer your thoughts either in the comments section (below) or by becoming a "correspondent"!

Bitterly Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills Saturday

What a week!  Temperatures were around 70 one week ago, and now it feels like we're in the teens and 20's - at best.  Winter is definitely here, at least for the time being.  A strong storm system is churning off the coastline providing very gusty Northwesterly winds for the region today.  With all the cold air in place, we're lucky this storm didn't make a closer track, as we'd definitely be digging out from several inches of snow.  What would you prefer?  Today's icy wind chills or a snow storm?  Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

For the rest of the day, look for the gusty Northwesterly winds to continue.  There have been a few ocean effect flurries/snow showers on Cape Cod today, and a few snow showers on the Northern and Western slopes of the mountains, thanks to the Northwesterly upsloping wind.  For the rest of us, expect partly sunny skies today.  If you have anything to do outdoors, whether it be putting up Christmas decorations or running around getting ready for Thanksgiving, you will have to bundle up.

Thankfully, the core of the cold air mass will begin to retreat a bit tomorrow. With that said, highs will remain in the 30's across the region.  The wind will begin to let up a little bit, but it still will be breezy with wind chills in the 20's.

The next system will come into play Monday night/Tuesday.  This time, the storm will spread precipitation into New England, unlike the last few.  This storm will probably take a more inland track, allowing for warmer air to move into the region.  Right now it appears that the majority of the precipitation in Southern, Eastern and Central parts of New England will probably be mainly rain, with a touch of wintry weather possible at the onset of the precipitation.  The period of wintry weather could be prolonged in portions of Northern New England before the changeover.  This system is still a few days away, so some details still need to be worked out regarding precipitation type.

I do want to mention that several models are indicating that this storm may linger in the vicinity of the Northeast, providing periodic rain/snow showers through the later portion of next week.  This is something we'll definitely keep an eye on for Thanksgiving, but at this time it doesn't look to be too significant.

Rare November Tornado Watch Issued For Portions of The Northeast

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has issued a TORNADO WATCH for much of the Northeast (all of the areas shaded in red on the above map). The details from the Storm Prediction Center can be read by clicking "continue reading" below.

Unsual and Unexpected Tide Changes Along The Midcoast of Maine

I stumbled upon this while on the National Weather Service's website a few minutes ago, and thought it warrented a post here.  Do you have any comments about this?  If so, please post them by clicking on the comments link below this post.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 PM EST WED OCT 29 2008


...TUESDAY`S UNUSUAL TIDE FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE MID-MAINE
COAST...

THE CAUSE OF YESTERDAY`S UNUSUAL TIDE FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE
MID COAST OF MAINE REMAINS A MYSTERY...AND MAY NEVER BE KNOWN.
SIGNIFICANT RAPID RISES AND FALLS IN TIDE LEVELS WERE OBSERVED
AROUND 3 PM IN BOOTHBAY HARBOR, SOUTHPORT, AND BRISTOL. ONLY
VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS WERE NOTED AT TIDE GAUGES ALONG THE
COAST.

THERE ARE SEVERAL POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR YESTERDAY`S EVENT.
RAPID SURGES CAN BE CAUSED BY THE UNDERWATER MOVEMENT OF LAND,
MOST OFTEN DUE TO AN EARTHQUAKE, OR DUE TO THE SLUMPING OF
SEDIMENTS ALONG A STEEP CANYON OR SHELF. NO EARTHQUAKES WERE
REPORTED IN THE AREA YESTERDAY. IN RARE INSTANCES, LARGE AND
RAPID SURGES CAN BE GENERATED BY STORMS. IN EITHER CASE, THE
BATHYMETRY OF THE OCEAN FLOOR REFLECTS AND REFRACTS THE WAVE
ENERGY AND CAN CAUSES SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE COAST...AND RAPID CHANGES IN TIDE LEVELS AT A
PARTICULAR LOCATION. THESE SURGES ARE QUITE UNLIKE THE MUCH
SLOWER SURGES NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL STORMS.

EYE-WITNESS REPORTS FROM SEVERAL LOCATIONS INDICATED THAT WATER
LEVELS FELL AND ROSE FROM 4 FEET TO AS MUCH AS 12 FEET ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE EVENT. THESE RAPID CHANGES IN TIDAL
LEVELS GENERATED THE STRONG CURRENTS THAT DAMAGED PIERS AND
BOATS IN THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THESE EVENTS ARE RARE ALONG THE MAINE COAST, THEY HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST. ON JANUARY 9, 1926, AN EVENT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S EVENT WAS OBSERVED IN BASS HARBOR. DURING THAT
EVENT, THE HARBOR DRAINED RAPIDLY AND THEN WAS FOLLOWED BY A 10
FT SURGE OF WATER, FOLLOWED BY TWO OTHER SMALLER WAVES. THERE
WERE NO EARTHQUAKES REPORTED ON THAT DAY. NO ONE WAS INJURED
IN THAT EVENT BUT ABOUT 50 FISHING BOATS WERE HURLED ASHORE.

$$

JENSENIUS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GRAY, MAINE

October Nor'easter Will Bring Rain For Some... Rain Changing To Snow For Others

A rapidly intensifying Nor'easter will bring heavy rain to most areas in the Northeast, while others will see rain changing over to snow! In fact, the National Weather Service has already issued a variety of winter weather advisories, watches and warnings for portions of New York. Matt Noyes posted a photo earlier today from Philadelphia of the increasing clouds there...associated with the storm system that will bring the rain and snow to the Northeast.

The weather map to the right is the predicted surface analysis and precipitation for Wednesday morning. If you enlarge it, you'll notice that by that point the center of the storm will be located in Canada, but cold air on the back side of the storm will be draining into the rest of the Northeast.  As a result, any lingering rain showers Tuesday night/early Wednesday would likely changeover to snow in some of the higher elevations of Northern and Western New England, and snow showers would continue in the Adirondacks in New York, where several inches of accumulation are possible when the storm is over. At this time, it looks like snow accumulations in the higher elevations of Northern and Western New England (White Mountains, Green Mountains, Berkshires, Monadnocks) will generally be in between a coating and 2" or 3" of slushy snow. The Berkshires and Monadnocks will likely fall on the low end of that range, and conversely amounts in the Whites and Green Mountains will probably be on the higher end of that range. Elsewhere throughout the rest of New England - the precipitation will fall mainly in the form of rain, but a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain can't be ruled out outside of the I-95 cooridor.

Remember that you can get the latest weather information right here on National Weather Online - the latest radar, watches/warnings, forecasts, etc. for your area can be accessed to the right of the radar window on the Northeast page of this website.

A Sign of Things To Come...

While it was raining throughout much of the Northeast late yesterday and early this morning, it was snowing throughout the higher elevations of Northern New England! Marti Mayne from the Mt. Washington Valley Chamber of Commerce emailed me the picture on the left this afternoon. It was taken by Thomas Prindle around midday at Wildcat Mountain in New Hampshire. Here's a portion of Marti's email to me:

Mt. Washington Valley, NH is reporting in with snow this morning. We’re seeing some accumulation in Crawford and Pinkham Notches, starting at about the 2,000 foot mark, where light rain turned to snow on the way up to Wildcat Mountain according to Marketing Director, Thomas Prindle. As of noon, Wildcat has received about an inch to an inch - and - a - half of accumulation.

While only around 1.5" was reported at Wildcat, as much as 7" was reported at the summit of Killington in Vermont.  Ski season is coming! (I can't wait!) Click here for more totals from throughout Northern Maine.

Final Rain Tally in Atkinson, NH

Well...the rain has ended (finally!) so it's time to tally up the totals from over the past four days.  Please note that Atkinson, NH, (where I'm reporting from) did not receive as much rain as several other towns across New England.  For specific town-by-town rain tallies, please click here to be redirected to the National Weather Service's website.

Rainfall amounts in Atkinson, NH
Friday, 9/26:.....................1.57"

Saturday, 9/27:.................1.28"

Sunday, 9/28:....................0.44"
Final three-day rain total:...3.29"

Heavy Rain Sets New Records In Parts of New England

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
145 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS PUSHED MONTHLY...YEAR TO
DATE AND YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS...AND IN SOME
CASES SET RECORDS...IN PORTLAND MAINE AND CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HERE IS A SUMMARY FOR EACH CITY.

...RECORD PRECIPITATION SET AT PORTLAND FOR SEPTEMBER AND FOR THE
FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR...

PORTLAND RECORDED A RECORD SETTING 2.21 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 26TH
(THE OLD RECORD WAS 2.05 INCHES SET IN 1888) FOLLOWED BY 1.27 INCHES
ON THE 27TH AND 1.12 INCHES ON THE 28TH. THIS GIVES PORTLAND A TOTAL
OF 10.83 INCHES FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
PORTLAND MEASURED MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN SEPTEMBER AND
TOPPED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 9.81 INCHES SET IN 1954.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE TEN WETTEST SEPTEMBERS IN PORTLAND...

RANK     RAINFALL       YEAR
 1       10.83 INCHES   2008  (THROUGH THE 28TH)
 2        9.81 INCHES   1954
 3        9.57 INCHES   1896
 4        8.80 INCHES   1999
 5        8.22 INCHES   1888
 6        8.16 INCHES   1920
 7        7.81 INCHES   1907
 8        7.58 INCHES   1882
 9        6.79 INCHES   1944
10        6.60 INCHES   1994

DRIEST    0.30 INCHES   1948
NORMAL    3.37 INCHES

THE 10.83 INCHES (WITH TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH) IS THE 11TH
WETTEST MONTH EVER IN PORTLAND. THE WETTEST MONTH WAS OCTOBER 1996
WITH 16.86 INCHES.

THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL PUSHED THE YEARLY TOTAL TO OVER 48 INCHES.
THE 48.07 INCHES FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28TH IS A RECORD
FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR
JANUARY THROUGH SEPTEMBER RAINFALL WAS 47.90 INCHES SET IN 1979.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE TEN WETTEST JANUARY THROUGH SEPTEMBER PERIODS
IN PORTLAND...

RANK      RAINFALL      YEAR
 1        48.07 INCHES  2008
 2        47.90 INCHES  1979
 3        46.65 INCHES  1920
 4        45.91 INCHES  1991
 5        43.62 INCHES  2006
 6        42.57 INCHES  1954
 7        42.00 INCHES  1933
 8        41.63 INCHES  1884
 9        40.95 INCHES  1998
10        40.72 INCHES  1922

DRIEST    15.27 INCHES  1957
NORMAL    32.47 INCHES

FOR AN ENTIRE YEAR THE 48.07 IN 2008 RANKS AS THE 32ND WETTEST YEAR
AND NEEDS OVER 18 INCHES OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS TO TOP THE
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD WHICH WAS 66.45 INCHES IN 2005.

RAINFALL RECORDS IN PORTLAND BEGAN IN 1871.

...HEAVY RAINFALL IN CONCORD THIS MONTH IS MAKING THIS ONE OF THE
WETTEST SEPTEMBERS AND ONE OF THE WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD...

THROUGH THE FIRST 28 DAYS OF THE MONTH CONCORD HAS MEASURED 8.52
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS THE 6TH WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD (WITH
TWO MORE DAYS TO GO).

HERE IS A LIST OF THE TEN WETTEST SEPTEMBERS IN CONCORD...

RANK     RAINFALL       YEAR
 1       10.97 INCHES   1888
 2       10.68 INCHES   1938
 3        9.92 INCHES   1868
 4        9.44 INCHES   1999
 5        9.26 INCHES   1907
 6        8.52 INCHES   2008   (THROUGH THE 28TH)
 7        7.91 INCHES   1920
 8        7.78 INCHES   1960
 9        7.73 INCHES   1932
10        7.22 INCHES   1882

DRIEST    0.21 INCHES   1914
NORMAL    3.16 INCHES

THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL PUSHED THE YEARLY TOTAL TO OVER 46 INCHES.
THE 46.39 INCHES FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28TH MAKES THIS
THE 17TH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. WITH ANOTHER THREE MONTHS TO GO
THIS COULD END UP BEING ONE OF THE WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD FOR
CONCORD. THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS 2005 WITH 57.28 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION.

RAINFALL RECORDS IN CONCORD BEGAN IN 1868.

$$

SJC

Wide Range In Rainfall Amounts

Rainfall amounts so far throughout much of New England have been very much dependent upon your location.  For example, if you click on the graphic to the left that I've created, you'll be able to see the wide range in rainfall amounts in just Southeastern New Hampshire alone.  Weather spotters for the National Weather Service have reported nearly 4" of rain on the New Hampshire seacoast, while in North Salem, NH, just over 1" of rain has been reported thus far. If you'd like to see more rain totals from throughout the Northeast, please click here to be redirected to the National Weather Service's website.

Flood Watches remain in effect for much of New England, as I posted about earlier this morning.  You can track the rain throughout the weekend right here on National Weather Online, using the doppler radar imagery located at the top of our main page.

Ryan

Flood Watches Up For Much of New England

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
941 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A CONTINUOUS ONSHORE
FLOW OF ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY TROPICAL STORM KYLE WILL
MOVE BY AS IT HEADS FOR THE MARITIMES. THIS COULD PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WESTERN MAINE...ANDROSCOGGIN...COASTAL
  CUMBERLAND...COASTAL WALDO...COASTAL YORK...INTERIOR
  CUMBERLAND...INTERIOR WALDO...INTERIOR YORK...KENNEBEC...
  KNOX...LINCOLN...SAGADAHOC AND SOUTHERN OXFORD. IN NEW
  HAMPSHIRE...BELKNAP...COASTAL ROCKINGHAM...INTERIOR
  ROCKINGHAM...MERRIMACK...NORTHERN CARROLL...NORTHERN GRAFTON...
  SOUTHERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN GRAFTON...STRAFFORD AND SULLIVAN.

* FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES
  OF RAIN...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS CENTRAL
  AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND MID
  COAST MAINE.

* THIS MUCH RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
  RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE
  AREAS. EVENTUALLY AS THE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS DUMP INTO
  LARGER RIVERS THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL FLOODING THERE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAY FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.
--

$$

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN
  NEW HAMPSHIRE AND RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  AREAS...IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD CT...TOLLAND CT AND
  WINDHAM CT. IN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA...EASTERN
  ESSEX MA...EASTERN FRANKLIN MA...EASTERN HAMPDEN MA...EASTERN
  HAMPSHIRE MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...
  NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA...NORTHERN
  WORCESTER MA...SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...
  SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA...SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA...SUFFOLK MA...
  WESTERN ESSEX MA...WESTERN FRANKLIN MA...WESTERN HAMPDEN MA...
  WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA...WESTERN NORFOLK MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH
  MA. IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CHESHIRE NH...EASTERN
  HILLSBOROUGH NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH. IN
  RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI...NEWPORT RI...
  NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI...SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI...WASHINGTON
  RI AND WESTERN KENT RI.

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TODAY.

THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER LULL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT
WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. TROPICAL STORM KYLE
MAY THROW BACK A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ON THE COAST SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR INLAND.

THIS RAIN MAY LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY.

TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS INCLUDING THE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM BETWEEN 2 AND 4.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THE AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
WITH POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED 7 INCH AMOUNTS.

THERE ALSO IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG SOME LARGER
TRIBUTARIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS RISK LIES PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE EASTERN HALF OF MASSACHUSETTS...AND RHODE ISLAND.
THE PAWTUXET RIVER IN CRANSTON COULD EXPERIENCE PROBLEMS EARLIER
SINCE IT RESPONDS QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAINS.

TO ACQUIRE SPECIFIC RIVER STAGE FORECASTS GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON...CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS...AND CLICK ON
THE FORECAST POINT OF CONCERN.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. NEVER DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY
APPEAR.

$$

FRANK/NMB

NEW MONTH, SAME WEATHER PATTERN

Today we flip the calendars to August, the last month of summer meteorologically. You'd think that maybe with the new month, we'd have a new weather pattern. Not the case. We're starting August pretty much the same way we started July - with a trough in the jet stream, and a slow moving closed low. I've attached two images from the GFS computer model's morning run. The first is the jet stream set-up for Sunday. If you click on the image to the left to enlarge it, you'll be able to see a well-defined trough in the jet stream over the Northeastern corner of the country, while there is a distinct ridge of high pressure centered over Oklahoma.

As a result, central portions of the nation, from the Gulf Coast all the way to South Dakota, high temperatures will be in the 90's and 100's this weekend. Therefore, several heat advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service through Sunday or Monday for many of those areas due to the heat and humidity. Back here in the Northeast, and especially in New England, it will be much cooler, with temperatures probably only topping off in the 60's in Northern Maine, 70's elsewhere in New England on both Saturday and Sunday, under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms. There could even be some severe thunderstorms in Southern New England on Saturday.

The map to the right is the prediction for Wednesday morning's jet stream. By then, you can see that the trough that will be over the Northeast during the weekend will be gone, and a more "zonal" flow of the jet stream will probably be established. Notice that the big ridge I was talking about of the central parts of the nation this weekend will flatten out as it moves toward the Eastern seaboard. Thus, I am not expecting temperatures in the 90's, but rather temperatures in the lower half of the 80's during the early and middle portions of the next work-week.

It will probably be dry on Monday and Tuesday across much of the Northeast, aside from a few showers in Northern New England on Monday. The next threat of rain does return for later Wednesday though, in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Have a good weekend!
Ryan

GENERAL "RUN-OF-THE-MILL" THUNDERSHOWERS MOVING THROUGH

General "run-of-the-mill" thunderstorms have been widely scattered throughout the region today. Not every community has been hit by these storms, as they have been of the hit and miss variety. There have been a few stronger storms across the interior areas of New England, though the trend has been for the storms to weaken as they move East. As stronger storms moved through Western Massachusetts and New Hampshire, large hail was reported in Chicopee, MA, and large tree limbs were downed in Keene, NH. For more storm reports from the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA, click here.

Doppler radar screenshots from around 4:30 pm, click to enlarge:
     

STORMS NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION

A quick update for you... As of 1:30 pm, thunderstorms are now starting to develop, mainly across Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, and far northern Massachusetts. These storms will produce very heavy rainfall as they move through, and possibly damaging winds or hail. Not every town will get hit, as the storms are of the hit and miss variety. You can always get the latest radar, advisories, watches and warnings right here on NationalWeatherOnline.com. I have posted a couple of radar shots below from just before 1:30 pm. Please keep an eye to the sky this afternoon - and remember, "when thunder roars, go indoors!"
   

TORNADO TOUCHES DOWN IN 11 NH TOWNS

I apologize that I didn't post on this earlier. I was on vacation last week and returned home last night. The National Weather Service in Gray, ME concluded their damage survey from Thursday's storms in New Hampshire on Saturday. Here is a summary of what they have determined:
* Tornado damage was observed in 11 New Hampshire communities, including (in order of the tornado path) the towns of Deerfield, Epsom, Northwood, Pittsfield, Barnstead, Alton, New Durham, Wolfeboro, Ossipee, Effingham, and Freedom.
* The tornado cut a discontinuous path of damage of about 40 miles in length.
* The maximum observed width of the tornado was about 1/3 of a mile.
* Based on the storm's forward speed during the event, it is estimated that the time between the initial touchdown and the final lift off was slightly under an hour. The weather service says that more precise measurements will be determined over the next several weeks based on aerial survey images and the doppler radar data.
* Many thousands of trees were downed by the tornado. Numerous homes and other structures were damaged by falling trees. One fatality occured in Deerfield, in a house collapse.

Based on the observed damage, the following ratings (based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale) have been assigned for each town, by the National Weather Service:

* Deerfield - EF2
* Epsom - EF2
* Northwood - EF1
* Pittsfield - EF2
* Barnstead - EF2
* Alton - EF1
* New Durham - EF1
* Wolfeboro - EF2
* Ossipee - EF2
* Effingham - EF1
* Freedom - EF1

* EF1 ratings indicate winds in the 86 to 110 MPH range.
* EF2 ratings indicate winds in the 111 to 135 MPH range.
According to the National Weather Service, most of the damage observed in the towns with the EF2 ratings indicated winds in the lower end of the EF2 range.
* For more information on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, please click here.

HARD-HITTING STORMS STRIKE NEW ENGLAND, LEAVING THOUSANDS WITHOUT POWER

A hard-hitting line of thunderstorms moved through New Hampshire and Maine on Friday, leaving thousands without power. In fact, nearly 20,000 Mainers were without power Friday afternoon, and over 3,000 New Hampshire residents were without power. Hail as large as 2 inches in diameter was reported in New Hampshire, and wind gusts as high as 80 mph were estimated in Gorham, Maine, according to the National Weather Service. As a result, 50-100 trees were downed near Gorham Country Club, and it was later reported that nearly 90 percent of the roads in Gorham were impassable.

And that's not all! A TORNADO WARNING was issued by the National Weather Service for Strafford county in New Hampshire and Southern York county in Maine around 6:15 pm, because a severe thunderstorm formed that was capable of producing a tornado, though a tornado or even a funnel cloud was not reported. For more information on that, please scroll down and read Meteorologist Matt Noyes' post.

Storm Damage Reports
** Southern New England
** Northern New England
** Northern Vermont
** Northeastern New York And Southern Vermont

HEAT & HUMIDITY MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST

Summer is making a comeback across parts of the Northeast, where last week the weather was rather unsettled. Today, hazy sunshine has come out across much of New England, and as of this writing, much of New England has stayed dry, aside from portions of Rhode Island where a downpour moved through  around midday. That is not the case though across portions of Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic, where showers and thunderstorms erupted this afternoon, as shown on the radar snapshot to the left. Remember you can always get the latest radar at the top of this page.

As for the forecast, I am expecting the chance of thunderstorms to lift northward into parts of New England tomorrow afternoon, though the storms will be of the hit or miss variety, so not every town will get hit. However, the towns that do get hit may see some torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and possibly some small hail. Temperatures will boost into the 90's throughout much of the Northeast tomorrow and Wednesday. An approaching cold front will spark more widespread thunderstorms throughout the Northeast on Wednesday, some of which may be severe.

Be sure to check back for future updates throughout this week.

NASTY THUNDERSTORMS HIT THE NORTHEAST

Some really nasty boomers hit the Northeast today, and continue to do so now. In fact, a TORNADO WARNING was issued for a time in Central New Hampshire, because doppler radar indicated rotation in a thunderstorm over Ashland, NH. A tornado was not reported, and neither was a funnel cloud (a tornado not touching the ground). However, a funnel cloud was reported near Clifton, NY (eastern New York) around 4:50 this afternoon. Several damage reports have come into the National Weather Service, and for those reports, click the links below.

* Southern New England

* Northern New England

* Northern Vermont

* Northeastern New York And Southern Vermont

* Eastern New York And Southern Connecticut

- Ryan Breton
Atkinson, NH