The tropics are finally heating up, after they were virtually silent for the first two months of hurricane season in the Atlantic.
As you know, Tropical Depression #2 formed early Tuesday in the eastern Atlantic. There were signs that the system was organizing on Wednesday, and rumors floated around the weather world that it might be named Tropical Storm Ana. However, as soon as convection flared and it looked like a decent system, it faded and essentially died by Thursday! The NHC issued its final regular advisory on the system Thursday evening, but they're still keeping an eye on it in case it starts to reorganize.
What caught my attention and many other's was not so much Tropical Depression #2, but rather a more robust wave behind it, coming off of the west coast of Africa. As of midday Friday, this tropical wave has not been classified a depression, and is located southwest of the Cape Verde islands. The NHC does say that there is a high (>50%) chance that this wave develops into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Some of the computer models (the GFS in particular) have been developing this system into something significant from the beginning. Admittedly, computer models need to be taken with a huge grain of salt when predicting tropical waves and the like, but it is something worth noting. I've posted what we call a "spaghetti chart" - which is essentially a map that presents each computer model's projected path of the system, over the next week or so.
As you can see, the guidance is in fair agreement that the system will continue on its current west-northwest track for the next few days. Beyond that, there are plenty of questions. How intense will the system be? Will it be a Tropical Storm? Or, will it have trouble organizing like Tropical Depression #2 did? Where will it go? We simply don't have a confident answer at this time. However, I strongly suggest that anyone along the U.S. coast from Texas to Maine keep a watchful eye on the evolution of this system. We'll definitely keep an eye on it for you, and have updates along the way.